The removal of Abdiaziz Laftagareen in Baidoa should not be treated as just another regional political shift. It points to something deeper in how the Federal Government of Somalia is now dealing with federal member states.
For years, Somalia’s federal system has been unclear in practice. The constitution created a structure, but left key questions open. Who controls elections, how power is shared, and where authority begins and ends have all remained contested. That lack of clarity has repeatedly led to standoffs between Mogadishu and the regions.
What happened in Baidoa suggests the federal government is no longer willing to sit through prolonged disputes when its authority is openly challenged.
Now attention turns to Jubaland.
This did not start now
The tensions with Jubaland have been building over time, especially around the issue of elections and political control.
When the federal government pushed for electoral reforms ahead of 2026, including moving toward a one person one vote system, most federal member states showed some level of alignment. Jubaland took a different path.
Ahmed Mohamed Islam Madobe rejected the proposals, arguing they risked concentrating too much power in Mogadishu. Jubaland went on to amend its own framework and held an election in late 2024, extending leadership in a way the federal government declared unconstitutional.
The fallout was immediate. Both sides accused each other of undermining the state. Arrest warrants were issued. Ties were suspended. When federal troops moved into Ras Kamboni, Jubaland treated it as a direct threat. Clashes followed, and the situation quickly moved beyond politics into confrontation.
Why Baidoa matters
Jubaland is not the same as Southwest. It is more consolidated, more strategic, and has its own internal strength. But Baidoa still changes the picture.
It shows that the federal government is prepared to act, not just negotiate. It also shows that regional leadership structures are not as fixed as they sometimes appear.
That will not go unnoticed in Kismayo.
Hassan Sheikh’s next move
Hassan Sheikh Mohamud now finds himself in a position where timing matters.
Moving aggressively without a political strategy would be risky. Jubaland is not a place where a quick intervention would settle things easily, and any escalation could distract from the fight against Al Shabaab, especially in southern Somalia.
At the same time, stepping back completely would send the opposite message, that challenges to federal authority carry no real consequence.
What comes next
The situation with Jubaland cannot be handled the same way as Baidoa. It requires a more deliberate approach.
There needs to be a serious push toward resolving the underlying issues that keep causing these conflicts. The constitution still leaves too much open to interpretation, especially on elections, term limits, and the division of powers. Without agreement on these points, similar crises will continue.
Dialogue will be necessary, not just between political leaders but also involving broader stakeholders. At the same time, there has to be consistent pressure to ensure that any agreements are respected.
A moment that should not be wasted
What happened in Baidoa has created a rare opening.
In Somali politics, these moments do not last long. Delays tend to bring a return to familiar patterns of disagreement and stalled progress.
If the federal government wants to move the country toward a more stable and functional system, this is the point where direction has to be set clearly.
Jubaland is not just another dispute. It is where the question of Somalia’s federal model is being tested in real terms.
What happens next will shape more than just one region. It will define how the Somali state works going forward.
